I'm not sure where you got that statistic, but I don't think it's accurate. I have dating profiles on OKCupid and PlentyofFish (and some others). I have messaged men on both sites numerous times and almost always get NO response. The 40% chance is way too high IMO. To be honest, I get why the men's side is only at 25% because I get a lot of messages that consist of "hey."
If that's your A-game, it's not gonna get you a response. LOL Just my two cents worth....
Happy to cite that. I saw it being cited in later pieces, but this was the original:
https://blog.ted.com/7-things-we-learned-about-online-dating-from-the-co-founder-of-okcupid/
That came from a co-founder of OK Cupid so it's pretty authoritative and again, it is an average. The date is 2013 so a person can say it is dated, but it also comports with information gleaned from other sites too: women receive far better response rates than men.
We also know that for women, the maximum responses are to pretty 18 year olds. I was not making that up. The average is composed of women who receive zero answers no matter how many letters they write along with centerfold quality young women who get drowned in responses.
Most women are in the middle, and if we were to look more closely at some "deal breakers" for most of the population: polyamory is definitely a strike against you.
Being up front about that might cost you a lot of responses. But on the other hand it is going to eliminate the issue of concealing something important until you already have them roped in emotionally.
I don't have a dog in this fight, I am just a number cruncher by trade, published many papers in obscure academic journals in statistics.
Working with the average first, you can select a target number of responses like ten, it's a round number. 10/.4 = 25. An average woman would expect to write 25 letters to get 10 responses.
There is a famous statistical problem I heard from one of the top statisticians in academia, his name was Alan Hogg. I had the honor of taking a class from him, the most exciting class of my graduate work. But he called it "The Secretary Problem".
The problem for the statistician is that he will have a number of secretaries over his career, and he is concerned with maximizing the probability of choosing the best match. He is a geek and has never dated a woman but now he is a PhD professor and he's got them fawning after him. All he sees is secretaries because he just works and goes home.
How many secretaries, or rather what proportion of them should he let go by before offering marriage? And the answer is 1/e. The letter e means the natural logarithm, it's roughly 2.7. Not quite 3.
So it's roughly one-third. You let one-third of them go by and get a feel for what they're like. Now you can assess what a good one is vs. a bad one. You marry the next one that fits your experience as a good one.
It has much wider application of course.